As you saw the markers of change in hindsight [discussed in Part 1], now I want you to look at the markers of change we see today and project them forward. What do you see in foresight?
** This post is the second part (a summary transcript continuation) of Dr. LugoSantiago’s presentation at the Institute for Leadership & Strategic Foresight on April 9th, 2020 **
Thus far, what we’ve done is looked at the past to calibrate our critical thinking. Then, we looked at the present, so we could see the velocity of change. And we can see that the landscape we’ve seen is heart-rending.
But we cannot set our sights on the current scenario and forget to think about the unraveling future; it’s filled with opportunity and hope. What I want to do next is to think about the next 5, 10 to 20 years into the future in a very different way.
Basically, in business, non-profit, education, technology, can we see what’s changing and what’s emerging? Where are the opportunities? And where can we make a difference?
I want you to use the same skills you used previously (in Part I of this series) to look at the weak signals of the past that pointed to our current scenario, and I want you to engage that sense of what you may think are weak signals of the future. I want you to project that sense and intuition forward.
In other words, as you saw the markers of change in hindsight, now I want you to look at the markers we see today of change in foresight.
Exploration Moment: Take a few seconds and write in a piece of paper, post-it notes, etc., what are the markers of change you see today? What do you see emerging? Take a moment to jot these down before you continue reading.
When I think about what’s changing, here are a few things at a glance…
- Social distancing is creating awareness of us and our environment
- Connecting via video-conferencing becoming mainstream, thrusting everyone to join in regardless of comfort level
- Immuno-health industry getting a marketing boost—think vitamins/nutritional supplements to keep you strong
- Work/school from home (what we knew) is validated—status quo crumbles and fights back as it is unavoidably challenged
- Families begin to spend more time together, connecting, knowing each other
- People are social beings, and although in lockdown, find ways to do what is natural—this will drive more change and industry innovation, in proportion to its utility.
- The environment works to repair itself from the damage of human activity, canals of Venice, New York, and San Francisco begin to clear out
Just as we thought about the past and were able to see signs of the present, here you can begin to see signs of the future. And I want to emphasize that it’s not one future we can see but multiple. It’s great that we can see more than one future because this means that there’s space for all of us.
Many times, people try to predict the future, trying to get it exact. That’s not what we need to do or want to do. Otherwise, we lock ourselves into a particular view of the future, to then find ourselves surprised and disrupted once again. What we need to do is see the myriad of futures and then shape what we want to see and prepare for the most likely undesired scenarios.
But wait! Before we get there, we need to think about not just what’s changing but also about what’s not changing. Here are a few of those things not changing…
- Mobility. People will still need to go places. The way they’ll do that in the future may change—there are hundreds of choices.
- Globalization. We will continue to be global citizens—what affects someone here can affect someone over there.
- Living Life. People will live two…(correction!)…three lives: one physical, one digital, and one hybrid!
- Healthy Living. As people live longer, health increases our chances for income, mobility, and overall quality of life with family and friends. We will more predominantly seek ways to stay healthy.
- Energy. We will continue to be energy-dependent. And so, there are also many choices here.
- Security. Humans will continue to seek security. Think about the types here: physical, cyber, mentally emotionally, etc.
- Entertainment. We will have a need for entertainment, for many reasons. The industry will need to evolve to meet that need and the social changes caused by this and potential future pandemics.
- Purpose. Humans will be driven by some sense of purpose. That has never changed from millennia!
Now, can you think about the implications and opportunities the above presents to leaders, communities, organizations, businesses, cities, countries, and the market place? Most certainly—the future(s) is bright!
The point here is that change is not infinite. Some things will not change, and those things that do not change will be in direct competition with those things that want to change. It’s important we think about this concept because these things form a force against or for the acceleration of change.
In other words, the old ways of doing business, propped by huge systems will see slow change. One can think about schools, government, infrastructure, ways of living (going to work, streets for cars, etc.), and large institutions that over time has been slow adaptors. We have known of the need to modernize, but so many interest groups have delayed this process. We have seen the consequences. I am hopeful and expect some modernization, but only as long as we remember the lessons of today, and again, project them forward.
There is an opportunity for change. We will explore this topic on our third and last post, “The Opportunity of Change,” in this series. For now, think about the two activities of this post: projecting forward and understanding what will be slow to change. Read you soon!
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Always motivated, lugo
© Copyright LugoSantiago Enterprise Group 2020
Dr. Jose Lugo Santiago is the chief leadership and foresight strategist for LS|EG, a consulting firm dedicated to facilitating change through leadership, strategy, and foresight. He holds over 28 years of experience leading organizations in the military and civilian sectors, and crafting strategy to meet successful business process re-engineering and innovation. He is also the author of several titles to include peer-reviewed academic works. His doctoral areas of research are Leadership and Foresight, Culture, Strategic Change, and Organizational Development.
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References and Notes:
Environmental Defense Fund. (2018, January). Clean energy is building a new American workforce. Retrieved from https://www.edf.org/energy/clean-energy-jobs
Guy, J., & Di Donato, V. (2020, March 16). Venice’s canal water looks clearer as coronavirus keeps visitors away. CNN Travel. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/venice-canals-clear-water-scli-intl/index.html
Shaftel, H. (2019, April 13). NASA Satellite Data Show 30% Air Pollution Drop over the Northeastern US. National Aeronautics and Space Agency – NASA. Retrieved from https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2970/nasa-satellite-data-show-30-air-pollution-drop-over-the-northeastern-us/
U.S. Department of Energy. (2017, August 8). Energy by the numbers: Wind power. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2cWfsQguHI
Dr. Jose Lugo Santiago is the chief leadership and foresight strategist for LS|EG, a consulting firm dedicated to facilitating change through leadership, strategy, and foresight. He holds over 28 years of experience leading organizations in the military and civilian sectors, and crafting strategy to meet successful business process re-engineering and innovation. He is also the author of several titles to include peer-reviewed academic works. His doctoral areas of research are Leadership and Foresight, Culture, Strategic Change, and Organizational Development.